WAR MONITOR All Briefings WW3 Risk
Intelligence Briefing · June 25, 2026

Ukraine Fronts Shift as Russia Advances | Gaza Ceasefire Collapses | Taiwan Tensions Rise

Threat Level: HIGH · 8/10
Ukraine High

Russia Strikes Ukrainian Energy Grid with Massive Missile Barrage

On 24 June 2026, Russian forces launched over 80 cruise and ballistic missiles targeting power substations across western Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian energy ministry. The attack knocked out electricity to approximately 4.2 million civilians, prompting emergency rolling blackouts in Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk regions. Western intelligence assesses the strike as part of a renewed campaign to degrade Ukraine’s winter resilience ahead of the upcoming cold season. Repair crews report significant damage to transformers, with full restoration expected to take up to ten days.

Sources: Reuters, BBC News
Ukraine Medium

Russian Forces Make Incremental Gains Near Bakhmut

In the Donetsk sector, Russian mechanized units advanced up to 2 kilometers south of Bakhmut on 23 June after a concentrated artillery barrage, seizing several small hilltop positions. Ukrainian defenders conducted a limited counterattack that stalled the advance but suffered casualties estimated at around 150 personnel. The fighting has intensified along the Bakhmut‑Svitlodarsk corridor, with both sides reporting increased use of loitering munitions. Analysts note that while the gains are tactically modest, they signal a renewed Russian effort to stretch Ukrainian defensive resources before the winter.

Middle East High

Gaza Ceasefire Collapses After Hamas Rocket Barrage

On 23 June, Hamas launched a salvo of over 30 rockets toward southern Israel, prompting the Israeli Defense Forces to resume targeted airstrikes on Gaza Strip militant sites. The IDF reported striking underground rocket launch tunnels and a weapons manufacturing facility, causing significant material damage. Palestinian health officials said the Israeli response resulted in at least 12 fatalities and 45 injuries, including civilians. International mediators, including Egypt and Qatar, have called for an immediate de‑escalation, but both sides have signaled readiness for further escalation.

Middle East Medium

Houthis Launch Ballistic Missiles at US Carrier Group in Red Sea

Early on 24 June, Houthi forces fired two short‑range ballistic missiles from Yemen toward the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group transiting the Bab al‑Mandeb strait. The US Navy’s Aegis combat system detected the launches and intercepted both missiles with SM‑6 Block IB interceptors, preventing any damage to the vessels. No casualties were reported among US personnel, though the incident prompted a heightened alert posture for allied shipping in the region. The Pentagon warned that further Houthi missile attacks could trigger a broader US‑led maritime security operation.

Taiwan High

PLA Live‑Fire Drills Cross Taiwan Strait Median Line

From 22 to 24 June, the People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command conducted live‑fire exercises involving destroyers, frigates, and fighter jets that repeatedly crossed the informal median line of the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported scrambling F‑16V and Mirage 2000‑5 fighters to monitor the PLA activities, with no incursions into Taiwanese airspace. The drills included simulated anti‑ship missile launches and electronic warfare exercises, raising concerns about a potential miscalculation. Regional analysts assess the exercises as a signal of Beijing’s willingness to use coercive military pressure ahead of Taiwan’s upcoming presidential inauguration in May 2027.

Korea Medium

North Korea Tests New Solid‑Fuel ICBM, Sparking Regional Alarm

On 25 June, North Korea launched a solid‑fuel intercontinental ballistic missile from its Sunan airfield, which flew approximately 4,500 kilometers before landing in the Pacific Ocean east of Japan. The missile, identified as the Hwasong‑19, demonstrated a higher thrust‑to‑weight ratio and a shorter preparation time compared to liquid‑fuel predecessors. Japan’s Ministry of Defense issued a J‑Alert, urging citizens to stay indoors, while South Korea’s military raised its readiness posture to Level 2. The United States condemned the launch as a violation of UN Security Council resolutions and called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council.

Sources: BBC News, Reuters
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Published June 25, 2026. How threat levels are calculated.